Center for Global Development Publishes CEQ Working Paper

Fiscal Policy, Inequality, and the Ethnic Divide in Guatemala – Working Paper 397

by Maynor Cabrera, Nora Lustig and Hilcías Moran

Abstract

Guatemala is one of the most unequal countries in Latin America and has the highest incidence of poverty. The indigenous population is more than twice as likely to be poor than the nonindigenous group. Fiscal incidence analysis based on the 2009-2010 National Survey of Family Income and Expenditures shows that taxes and transfers do almost nothing to reduce inequality and poverty overall or along ethnic and rural-urban lines. Persistently low tax revenues are the main limiting factor. Tax revenues are not only low but also regressive. Consumption taxes are regressive enough to offset the benefits of cash transfers: poverty after taxes and cash transfers is higher than market income poverty.

Two New CEQ Working Papers Now Available

Commitment to Equity is pleased to announce the availability of two new working papers published this past January. Click the title below to view:

No. 22: Fiscal Policy and Ethno-Racial Inequality in Bolivia, Brazil, Guatemala and Uruguay. By Nora Lustig

No. 27: Public Transfer and Poverty Reduction: An Evaluation of Program Contribution to the Exit Rate from Poverty of Children and the Elderly. By Marisa Bucheli

Guatemala CEQ Policy Assessment Now Available

Commitment to Equity, in conjunction with Tulane University and the Inter-American Dialogue are pleased to announce the availability of the CEQ Policy Assessment on Guatemala (by Maynor Cabrera, Nora Lustig, and Hilcías E. Morán).

Abstract: In 2010, according to the CEQ analysis for Guatemala, fiscal policy did almost nothing to change inequality and poverty. Recent developments on fiscal policy make things worse. A reduction in social spending, particularly in the flagship CCT program “Mi Bono Seguro” will negatively impact poverty and inequality. A reform of the personal income tax will result in lower fiscal revenues. The combined effects of these changes will likely result in an increase of poverty and inequality and reinforce the chronic status quo of poverty and inequality in Guatemala.

Announcing Publication of CEQ Guatemala Paper

Commitment to Equity’s 20th Working Paper “Fiscal Policy, Inequality, and the Ethnic Divide in Guatemala” is now available to download on commitmentoequity.org. Written by Maynor Cabrera (Fedes), Nora Lustig (Tulane University), and Hilcías E. Morán (Bank of Guatemala), the paper uses fiscal incidence analysis to show that takes and transfers do almost nothing to reduce inequality and poverty in Guatemala, one of the most unequal countries in Latin America.